Response, Recovery and Re-Imagination
Even with a shock like Covid-19, it will take time to determine the “new normal” as we continuously learn more about the virus. Disruption of this scale is sure to alter behaviours and we have already seen evidence of this within Government and across businesses as part of the UK’s initial “response”.
The result of the virus has accelerated decision making and provoked a series of discussions across different sectors, that could have otherwise taken months, even years to unfold.
Looking forwards, the economic impact must now be considered alongside the impact that this has had on us psychologically. We know that for some of our clients, this is an uncertain time and we have been providing advice on how to manage risk during this period. Those businesses that can keep up with and adapt to the changing market demands by utilising technology efficiently will be most resilient. This will mean a move away from traditional market demand type analysis and adopting a more flexible approach when appraising new development sites, to mitigate risk and harness opportunities from those sectors that are proving to be most resilient.
Within the residential sector this could mean that we see demand for improved space standards, an acceleration in remote technology, better private amenity space, flexible layouts and an improvement in air quality within buildings. Architects will have a role to play in developing smart buildings so that high density living can continue in our cities; this will help mitigate the short-medium term impact on deliverability.
In retail, we will continue to see a rise in experiential stores as consumers have become even more adept at buying commodity goods online. There is likely to be an increase in demand for warehouse space and an accelerated investment in robotics by retailers to future proof against a resurgence. Landlords will need to adapt to more flexible leasing structures; retailers that come out the other side will seek to protect themselves with new agreements; this could mean shorter lease terms, more frequent tenant breaks and turnover based rental agreements – savvy retailers such as Next and H&M are already having these discussions.
Government has a role to play in ensuring that space is repurposed efficiently. As behavioural patterns change, we will be looking for greater flexibility across the different use classes; town centres that service both day and night economies; and hotels that can operate as apartments or meanwhile uses.
The full impact of the pandemic is not yet known but given the shock of Brexit and now Covid-19, it is time for us all to think outside the box. Government and businesses will need to rethink to enable wealth creation and economic growth; this will mean a reduction in bureaucracy and processes to enable development to occur.
(April 2020)